Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.819715 2.175700 2.575450 3.056497 3.618512 4.253159 5.022892
2026-02-08 1.309604 1.761029 2.322949 3.069267 4.029363 5.217275 6.792010
2026-02-15 1.001329 1.484765 2.139782 3.082157 4.391180 6.131157 8.601929
2026-02-22 0.782551 1.263632 1.965022 3.045315 4.646003 6.904154 10.297055
2026-03-01 0.600022 1.048117 1.746679 2.890988 4.687150 7.357816 11.573759
2026-03-08 0.489214 0.917201 1.625555 2.850835 4.873539 8.021121 13.205338
2026-03-15 0.408236 0.817361 1.532909 2.833752 5.081437 8.724939 14.957169
2026-03-22 0.371085 0.787003 1.550211 2.998552 5.600736 9.967799 17.679900
2026-03-29 0.329236 0.738685 1.525919 3.083006 5.987111 11.024336 20.192429
2026-04-05 0.298920 0.706878 1.525980 3.209121 6.457577 12.263721 23.123791
2026-04-12 0.259691 0.648188 1.463500 3.204946 6.683728 13.091135 25.406223
2026-04-19 0.217825 0.574769 1.358541 3.099716 6.700942 13.536670 27.036360
2026-04-26 0.181291 0.506645 1.255026 2.985521 6.692777 13.946234 28.665324
2026-05-03 0.158290 0.466504 1.206392 2.980953 6.905797 14.797620 31.207242
2026-05-10 0.139369 0.432549 1.166046 2.988220 7.143069 15.717094 33.961245
2026-05-17 0.120706 0.394878 1.110107 2.950793 7.277568 16.439730 36.385478
2026-05-24 0.099433 0.344440 1.013100 2.800389 7.140174 16.584687 37.646535
2026-05-31 0.086319 0.314918 0.964665 2.761245 7.251171 17.261551 40.063931
2026-06-07 0.075908 0.291180 0.927432 2.744609 7.412191 18.059467 42.802484
2026-06-14 0.072881 0.291005 0.956029 2.904655 8.018982 19.896365 47.932520
2026-06-21 0.067477 0.281379 0.955728 2.986683 8.441199 21.352424 52.337828
2026-06-28 0.063716 0.276698 0.969370 3.109192 8.979242 23.119320 57.572045
2026-07-05 0.056913 0.258959 0.939883 3.105136 9.189392 24.137832 61.186829